A projection is not a prediction of what will happen. It is the middle of a range of outcomes. Two players projected for the same points can be completely different lineup decisions once you look at how wide their ranges are.
Floor, median, ceiling
Floor is the outcome you can reasonably expect on a bad day: low volume, tough defense, early exit from a lopsided game. Ceiling is the realistic best case. The projected total sits between them. A high floor with a modest ceiling is a safe weekly starter; a low floor with a huge ceiling is a swing you take when you need a big week.
When to start the risky player
- You are projected to lose by a wide margin — take the higher ceiling.
- You are projected to win comfortably — take the higher floor.
- Your opponent already has a locked-in big week — ceiling again.
- It is a playoff week and the matchup grade is poor — floor, every time.
Matchup grades tie it together
A matchup grade compresses opponent strength, pace and situation into one letter so you can scan a full lineup quickly. Combined with floor and ceiling it answers the only question that matters on Friday night: which of these two players do I actually start?
Floor, ceiling, matchup grades and the advanced splits behind each projection are premium features. The free tier shows the top 50 board and current-week projected points so you can see the model before you pay for it.